It is hard to tell conclusively what happened in Nukus, Karakalpakstan, an autonomy within Uzbekistan. Here is a quick but incomplete primer on the most recent events there:

What we know about protests in Uzbekistan's Karakalpakstan region

Some who analyzed the protests quickly came to the conclusion that Central Asia will destabilize after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine and used the most recent protests in Uzbekistan as an example to support their claim. That's too simplistic.

It is critical to factor in Russia's relationship with Uzbekistan over the past few years. And lumping all the Central Asian countries into a single group is, honestly, idiotic. Each has unique specificities that impact its domestic and foreign policies.

Back to Uzbekistan. For the past few years, Uzbekistan has been pulling out of Moscow's orbit. First, in 2012 they left the Russia-centric mini-NATO, the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Uzbekistan Exit from CSTO Reveals Limits of Russia's Eurasian Integration Plans

Second, Uzbekistan never joined the Eurasian Economic Union or EUEA.

Мирзиеев свернул с дороги в ЕАЭС

The EAEU, touted to be Moscow's analog to the EU, is nothing more than a soft power projection tool. I discussed it earlier here: On the Fate of Russia: Part 1

For such independence in its foreign policy, Uzbekistan has been annoying Russia for quite a while. The Russians and their puppets do not shy away from throwing thinly veiled threats against Uzbekistan from time to time. Most recently this past January:

Lukashenko threatens Uzbekistan

Some point out that Uzbekistan is ethnically diverse and the Karakalpaks are closer to the Kazakhs, etc. Those are the standard talking points for those who are looking for ethnic strife where there is little or none. First, Karakalpakstan is a region of fewer than two million people.

Second, ethnic Karakalpaks comprise a minority in their own region. Indeed Uzbekistan is not ethnically uniform. However, pundits are too quick to forget the protests in Andijan in 2005. It is in another ethnically diverse region in the Eastern Fergana valley.

Allegedly, the Islamic fundamentalists were behind the protests in 2005. Anywhere between 180-1500 people were killed. In the aftermath, no civil war erupted.

What Happened 10 Years Ago in Andijan?

Now back to Russia and their threats. The only regional or global player that stands to win politically but not necessarily financially from any civil strife in the countries of Central Asia is Russia.

Some interesting messages on pro-Russian Telegram channels have been floating around for a while before the protests in Karakalpakstan. For example, this https://t.me/directorate4/11946

This message from March 7, 2022, claims that "specialists from Ukraine" were preparing a psyop in Uzbekistan to destabilize the country in the same way as it happened in Kazakhstan in early January 2022. They claim that more than $1 million was dedicated to the op. They add that the planned op is anti-Russian in its nature, etc.