Part 1 of my reasoning as to what needs to happen to/in the Russian Federation to eliminate it as a persistent colonial aggressor.
The talks of saving Putin’s face and not allowing him to be humiliated in this war have met some seemingly passionate pushback.
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However, the pushback is not emotional as such proposals show a fundamental misunderstanding of Russia and the way the nation operates and thinks. Note that to “save Putin’s face” would constitute saving Russia’s face. I will drop mentioning Putin altogether.
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, while absurd from the Western perspective, is rational from the RU perspective. It was predicated on false assumptions including the Ukrainians not putting up fierce resistance and Europe not doing much due to their resource dependencies on Russia. The invasion is a continuation of Russia’s colonial policies that had never disappeared. And the choice of Ukraine as a target is not surprising.
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Ukraine, along with the Baltic states, did not go into Moscow’s orbit after the collapse of the Soviet Union and chose to pursue a multi-vector policy. While the Baltic states obtained the NATO umbrella in 2004, Ukraine was not so fortunate.
Later the same year Ukraine’s Orange Revolution took place. The protests were the immediate aftermath of the presidential elections, where the results were rigged in favor of a pro-Russian candidate, Viktor Yanukovych.
In 2010 Yanukovych became president and unsurprisingly sought closer relations with Russia. In 2013 he chose the EAEU path and abandoned Ukraine’s EU membership aspirations. This decision directly contributed to the Euromaidan protests of 2013-2014.
Ukraine to Receive Observer Status Within Eurasian Customs Union
Yanukovych fled to Russia in the aftermath. Russia took advantage of the situation and punished Ukraine’s Euro integration hopes with the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbas. So, what is the EAEU? The Eurasian Economic Union, aka the Customs Union.
The moniker of Таёжный Союз it got from the people of Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and other former colonies highlights its colonial nature. It is a play on the official name of Таможенный Союз. The people called it the Taiga Union. Is it equivalent to the EU? No, in no way, shape, or form.
Chatham House writes: “Moscow created the EAEU as a vehicle to reverse Russia’s loss of power in the region following the demise of the Soviet Union, rather than to pursue deep economic integration with smaller states.”
Myth 10: 'The Eurasian Economic Union is a genuine and meaningful counterpart to the EU'
They add: “Russia disregards the rules of the very organization through which it seeks to reassert its power… the EAEU is dominated by Russia’s ad hoc trade policy, which involves offering favourable deals to loyal states while punishing disloyalty.”
The union has nothing to do with economic integration and everything to do with Russia’s colonial geopolitics.
Members that do not abide by Russia’s arbitrary rules get swiftly punished. For example, in 2014 to pressure Belarus into helping to bypass western sanctions Russia banned imports produced by 23 large Belarusian companies.
